Sarina Trangle has an insightful piece at City & State about the future of Harlem politics and the race for New York’s 13th Congressional District.
Yet when Rangel’s term ends in 2016, he will not be retiring from the Harlem-centric district that propelled him to Washington, D.C., four and a half decades ago. Younger and more affluent blacks and whites have moved into Harlem, as well as immigrants from West Africa. Redistricting has extended his seat up through northern Manhattan and into Bedford Park, Norwood and other Bronx neighborhoods, giving it a Latino majority. These shifts have accentuated concerns that Harlem’s aging traditional black base lacks successors and is losing influence. Others see an opportunity in the changes to capitalize on Harlem’s identity and the newer black residents it has attracted.
I expect to be as competitive in this race as anyone. The number of candidates and the expected turnout gives credence to my plan. You can look at the numbers and see that even with a 10% jump in turnout, which I find hard to believe given that the Presidential primary is expected to be dominated by Mrs. Clinton and not competitive really, the division of 55,00 voters by 7 candidates means someone is going to win with a shockingly low number. I expect lower than Charles Rangel’s 2012 victory, which was about 17,000 votes.